Bodo/Glimt 1-1 Molde – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Molde encounter.

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Analysis

Molde make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 19:15 UK time.

Form

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Bodo/Glimt have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Molde's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Molde have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Bodo/Glimt's favour (2.50 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 2 for Molde and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Bodo/Glimt 3–1 Molde — a Bodo/Glimt win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.

Molde goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 65% and Molde 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 72% | Molde 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.24 xG and Molde 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.131 / defence 0.817 | Molde attack 1.028 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.367. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 33 games and Molde's last 34.

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 38% | Draw 28% | Molde 34%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 2.61 | Draw 3.60 | Molde 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Molde's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 home games) | Molde 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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