Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees ODD Ballklubb travel to Åråsen Stadion to take on Lillestrom. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 June 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
ODD Ballklubb away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lillestrom, 0 for ODD Ballklubb and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2021, ended 1–0 with Lillestrom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.38 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.792 / defence 1.180 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.837 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.225. Lillestrom's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Lillestrom games / 36 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 39% | Draw 30% | ODD Ballklubb 31%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | ODD Ballklubb 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lillestrom as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jun 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 39% | Draw 30% | ODD Ballklubb 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Lillestrom 1.38 / ODD Ballklubb 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.792 / def 1.180 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.837 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.21
ODD Ballklubb xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 20 June 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
Where is Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 39% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (1 meetings): Lillestrom 1W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 0W.
What form are Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. ODD Ballklubb away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lillestrom's attack at 0.79x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
39%
2.58
30%
3.28
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.59
1.21
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.21 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
ODD Ballklubb
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Lillestrom won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lillestrom's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Lillestrom
1
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb?
From 8 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 5, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Lillestrom 3-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Lillestrom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb finished level at 0-0 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.38 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.21 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 1.4 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.84 / defence 1.03, drawn from 5/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 39% | Draw 30% | ODD Ballklubb 31%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.