Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stromsgodset make the trip to Sandefjord Arena to face Sandefjord in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 June 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Sandefjord (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sandefjord have posted 1W 6D 3L at Sandefjord Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Stromsgodset's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stromsgodset away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Sandefjord, 0.80 for Stromsgodset — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Sandefjord — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Stromsgodset — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 47% versus Stromsgodset 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 50% | Stromsgodset 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 2.08 xG and Stromsgodset 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.842 / defence 1.196 | Stromsgodset attack 0.935 / defence 1.462. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.225. Stromsgodset bring a strong defensive rating of 1.462 — this is suppressing Sandefjord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Sandefjord games / 36 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 52% | Draw 24% | Stromsgodset 24%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Stromsgodset 4.17. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandefjord if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 50% | Stromsgodset 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jun 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 52% | Draw 24% | Stromsgodset 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Sandefjord 2.08 / Stromsgodset 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.842 / def 1.196 | Stromsgodset attack 0.935 / def 1.462 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Stromsgodset xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 20 June 2021 at Sandefjord Arena.
Where is Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset part of?
Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 52% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sandefjord and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Stromsgodset?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Stromsgodset in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (0.84) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stromsgodset's attack (0.94x) against Sandefjord's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.15
24%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.45
1.37
Stromsgodset xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.26
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
12%
8.02
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
3%
34.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.37 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Sandefjord have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 9W 8D 13L record — W-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Stromsgodset's form line: 7W 10D 13L from 30 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Sandefjord against 1.03 for Stromsgodset. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sandefjord have posted 1.07 PPG from 15 outings (3W 7D 5L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 4W 4D 7L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sandefjord are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.37 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Stromsgodset away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.07 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Stromsgodset been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Stromsgodset in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 0-5 on 23 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sandefjord
3
Draws
2
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-6 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Stromsgodset?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 40%, Stromsgodset 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Sandefjord and 73% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 47% of games; Stromsgodset in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 67% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Sandefjord's matches and 73% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Sandefjord and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 11, as Sandefjord and Stromsgodset drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 2.08 xG and Stromsgodset 1.37 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Stromsgodset landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.84 / defence 1.20 against Stromsgodset attack 0.94 / defence 1.46, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 52% | Draw 24% | Stromsgodset 24%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 50%, Stromsgodset 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.17 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.