ODD Ballklubb 2-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Rosenborg travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 July 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Skagerak Arena this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Rosenborg have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: ODD Ballklubb 1.50 PPG, Rosenborg 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. ODD Ballklubb register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rosenborg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for ODD Ballklubb, 1 for Rosenborg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2020, ended 1–4 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 56% versus Rosenborg 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 59% | Rosenborg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.64 xG and Rosenborg 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.081 / defence 0.815 | Rosenborg attack 0.969 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.157. Data: 39 ODD Ballklubb games / 41 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 53% | Draw 29% | Rosenborg 19%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Rosenborg 5.26. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 60% | Rosenborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jul 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 53% | Draw 29% | Rosenborg 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.64 / Rosenborg 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.081 / def 0.815 | Rosenborg attack 0.969 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Rosenborg xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 4 July 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
ODD Ballklubb 2 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 53% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg?
Record (2 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 0 | Rosenborg 1W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.08x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
53%
1.90
29%
3.51
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.56
0.91
Rosenborg xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
4%
27.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 0.91 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 17W 7D 15L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg's form line: 19W 9D 11L from 39 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.49 PPG, Rosenborg on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.83 PPG from 18 outings (10W 3D 5L).
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 5W 6D 7L from 18 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.79 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 17W 7D 15L in their last 39 games (1.49 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 19W 9D 11L in their last 39 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Rosenborg away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.83 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Rosenborg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
ODD Ballklubb
2
Draws
7
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, Rosenborg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 61%, Rosenborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for ODD Ballklubb and 56% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rosenborg in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 50% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 56% of Rosenborg's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 11, as ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.64 xG and Rosenborg 0.91 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.08 / defence 0.81 against Rosenborg attack 0.97 / defence 0.95, drawn from 39/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 53% | Draw 29% | Rosenborg 19%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 59%, Rosenborg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.49 PPG, Rosenborg 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.