Brann 1-3 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Brann host ODD Ballklubb at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 June 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Brann's home record at Brann Stadion: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Brann carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Brann register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, ODD Ballklubb in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Brann, 1 for ODD Ballklubb and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2020, ended 2–1 with Brann winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Brann in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 73% and ODD Ballklubb 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 57% | ODD Ballklubb 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.56 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.903 / defence 1.064 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.837 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.227. Data: 38 Brann games / 36 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 46% | Draw 30% | ODD Ballklubb 24%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | ODD Ballklubb 4.17. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brann at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brann offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brann 90% | ODD Ballklubb 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jun 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 46% | Draw 30% | ODD Ballklubb 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Brann 1.56 / ODD Ballklubb 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.903 / def 1.064 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.837 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Brann (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.09
ODD Ballklubb xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Brann vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 20 June 2021 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs ODD Ballklubb?
Brann 1 - 3 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Brann vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Brann vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 46% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Brann and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (2 meetings): Brann 1W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 1W.
What form are Brann and ODD Ballklubb in?
Brann (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Brann's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
46%
2.18
30%
3.33
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Brann xG
Total xG
2.66
1.09
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
5%
19.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Brann and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Brann and 1.09 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Brann have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 9W 9D 12L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 13W 4D 13L from 30 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brann on 1.20 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Brann have posted 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 5W 2D 8L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Brann are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.73 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 4D 13L in their last 30 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Brann's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.13 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Brann go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2024, when Brann won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brann's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Brann
1
Draws
3
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and ODD Ballklubb?
From 8 meetings on record, Brann have won 4, ODD Ballklubb have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brann and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-3 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and ODD Ballklubb?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brann see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brann at 87%, ODD Ballklubb at 47%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Brann) and 53% (ODD Ballklubb). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 87% of Brann's games and 47% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Brann's matches and 53% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Brann and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Brann.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Brann 1-3 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.56 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.09 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.90 / defence 1.06 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.84 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 46% | Draw 30% | ODD Ballklubb 24%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a ODD Ballklubb win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 57%, ODD Ballklubb 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 1.20 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock. Brann (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.