Valerenga 1-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Valerenga at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb meet at Intility Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 16 June 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Valerenga's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Intility Arena, Valerenga have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Valerenga. A 1.20 PPG lead over ODD Ballklubb (2.00 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Valerenga have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, ODD Ballklubb in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Valerenga lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2020, ended 2–0 with Valerenga winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Valerenga goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 63% and ODD Ballklubb 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 53% | ODD Ballklubb 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 2.04 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.085 / defence 0.963 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.828 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.689 / away 1.251. Data: 37 Valerenga games / 35 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 60% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 16%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | ODD Ballklubb 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Valerenga (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valerenga at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 70% | ODD Ballklubb 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Jun 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 60% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Valerenga 2.04 / ODD Ballklubb 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.085 / def 0.963 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.828 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.689 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.00
ODD Ballklubb xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 16 June 2021 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb?
Valerenga 1 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 60% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (2 meetings): Valerenga 1W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 1W.
What form are Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb in?
Valerenga (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Valerenga's attack rating (1.08) and ODD Ballklubb's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (0.83x) against Valerenga's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 37/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.30
16%
6.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.04
1.00
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
6.06
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
13%
7.69
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
2%
46.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.00 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Valerenga's recent record stands at 15W 10D 5L from 30 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five.
ODD Ballklubb, meanwhile, have gone 13W 4D 13L across 30 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Valerenga by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ODD Ballklubb heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Valerenga have managed 10W 5D 0L from 15 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
ODD Ballklubb's away record stands at 5W 2D 8L across 15 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Valerenga are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.73 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 15W 10D 5L in their last 30 games (1.83 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 4D 13L in their last 30 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Valerenga's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.33 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Valerenga or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valerenga have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ODD Ballklubb won 4-1 on 24 Jun 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valerenga have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Valerenga
2
Draws
4
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb?
From 8 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 2, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2023, when Valerenga 2-2 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 67%, ODD Ballklubb 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Valerenga) and 53% (ODD Ballklubb). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valerenga keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Valerenga's games and 47% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Valerenga's matches and 53% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 14, as Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 2.04 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.00 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Valerenga fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.08 / defence 0.96 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.83 / defence 1.11, drawn from 37/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 60% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 16%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 53%, ODD Ballklubb 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.