Tromso 1-2 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Tromso at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tromso vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Alfheim Stadion plays host to Tromso versus Lillestrom in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 20 June 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.59 xG and Lillestrom 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.804 / defence 1.445 | Lillestrom attack 0.740 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.227. Data: 7 Tromso games / 5 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 42% | Draw 29% | Lillestrom 29%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Lillestrom 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tromso are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tromso if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jun 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 42% | Draw 29% | Lillestrom 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Tromso 1.59 / Lillestrom 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.804 / def 1.445 | Lillestrom attack 0.740 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Tromso (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Lillestrom xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Lillestrom kick off?
Tromso vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 20 June 2021 at Alfheim Stadion.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Lillestrom?
Tromso 1 - 2 Lillestrom.
Where is Tromso vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Lillestrom part of?
Tromso vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 42% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Tromso and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Lillestrom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tromso and Lillestrom in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Tromso's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.74x) against Tromso's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 7/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
42%
2.40
29%
3.44
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.90
1.31
Lillestrom xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
6%
16.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Tromso and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Tromso and 1.31 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Pre-Season
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Tromso
3
Draws
2
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Lillestrom?
From 9 meetings on record, Tromso have won 4, Lillestrom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when Tromso 0-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Lillestrom?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Lillestrom defy the odds to beat Tromso 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Tromso 1-2 at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.59 xG and Lillestrom 1.31 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.80 / defence 1.45 against Lillestrom attack 0.74 / defence 1.18, drawn from 7/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 42% | Draw 29% | Lillestrom 29%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Lillestrom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.