Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Sarpsborg 08 FF take on Haugesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Haugesund travel to Sarpsborg Stadion to take on Sarpsborg 08 FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 June 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Sarpsborg Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sarpsborg Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at Sarpsborg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Haugesund are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 0, Haugesund 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% versus Haugesund 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 47% | Haugesund 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.90 xG and Haugesund 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.572 / defence 0.767 | Haugesund attack 0.799 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.225. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack strength of 0.572 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 35 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 35% | Draw 39% | Haugesund 26%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.86 | Draw 2.56 | Haugesund 3.85. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.65. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.65 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Haugesund's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Haugesund 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jun 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 35% | Draw 39% | Haugesund 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 34% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.90 / Haugesund 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.572 / def 0.767 | Haugesund attack 0.799 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Haugesund xG
34%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 20 June 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 35% chance of winning, Haugesund a 26% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
Record (1 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 0W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.57) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.87
39%
2.58
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
1.65
0.75
Haugesund xG
2.87
35%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.99
66%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
11%
9.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.2 | 14.4 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.9%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.75 for Haugesund, a combined total of 1.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record stands at 8W 8D 14L from 30 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 13L across 30 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.07 PPG, Haugesund on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have managed 6W 3D 6L from 15 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 5W 3D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.30 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 games (1.07 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Haugesund away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.40 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Haugesund in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Haugesund have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Haugesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%, Haugesund 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 60% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 33% of games; Haugesund in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 60% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 60% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sarpsborg 08 FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 11, as Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.90 xG and Haugesund 0.75 xG, a combined 1.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.57 / defence 0.77 against Haugesund attack 0.80 / defence 0.93, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 35% | Draw 39% | Haugesund 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 47%, Haugesund 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.07 PPG, Haugesund 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.