Bodo/Glimt 2-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 81%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Viking make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 July 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's home record at Aspmyra Stadion: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Viking have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 60% and Viking 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 75% | Viking 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 3.63 xG and Viking 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.553 / defence 0.926 | Viking attack 1.121 / defence 1.426. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.141. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.553 — their λ of 3.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.426 — this is suppressing Bodo/Glimt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Bodo/Glimt games / 40 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 81% | Draw 12% | Viking 7%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.23 | Draw 8.33 | Viking 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (81%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 86% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 4.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 86% — a total xG of 4.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (3.63 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 81% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.81 combined xG gives a 86% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Viking 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jul 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 81% | Draw 12% | Viking 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 86% | BTTS 68% | xG Bodo/Glimt 3.63 / Viking 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.553 / def 0.926 | Viking attack 1.121 / def 1.426 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.63
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Viking xG
68%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Viking kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Viking kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 3 July 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 2 Viking.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Viking part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Viking is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 81% chance of winning, Viking a 7% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 86%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Viking?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Viking in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Viking (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.55x the league average against Viking's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 3.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.12x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 42/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 4-1 (7.0%), 3-0 (6.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
81%
1.23
12%
8.63
7%
13.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 1
7.0%
Home win
3 – 0
6.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.63
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
4.81
1.18
Viking xG
1.23
81%
Home win
8.63
12%
Draw
13.64
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
86%
Over 2.5
1.16
14%
Under 2.5
7.14
71%
Over 3.5
1.41
29%
Under 3.5
3.45
53%
Over 4.5
1.89
47%
Under 4.5
2.13
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
3%
37.75
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 3.63 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.18 for Viking, a combined total of 4.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 40 games, going 31W 5D 4L for 2.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.50 PPG from 40 outings (17W 9D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Viking — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 18W 1D 1L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.25 points per game from 20 outings (7W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.95 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.82 scored and 1.82 conceded. Viking's attacking output running into Bodo/Glimt's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Viking in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Viking in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 31W 5D 4L in their last 40 games (2.45 PPG), while Viking have gone 17W 9D 14L in their last 40 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Viking away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.75 PPG; Viking away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Viking in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 5-0 on 11 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
4
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 5, Viking have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Viking 5-0 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Viking?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 50%, Viking 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Bodo/Glimt and 80% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Viking in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Viking?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 55% of Viking's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 80% of Viking's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Viking tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Viking in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt and Viking share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 11, as Bodo/Glimt and Viking drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 3.63 xG and Viking 1.18 xG, a combined 4.81. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Viking outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.55 / defence 0.93 against Viking attack 1.12 / defence 1.43, drawn from 42/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 81% | Draw 12% | Viking 7%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 81%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 86%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 96% and landed. Over 3.5 was 71% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 75%, Viking 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Viking's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.