Tromso vs Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tromso vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tromso host Valerenga at Alfheim Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 June 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Valerenga — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Valerenga have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.34 xG and Valerenga 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.803 / defence 1.447 | Valerenga attack 1.283 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.225. Valerenga have an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — the away xG of 2.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Tromso games / 38 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 20% | Draw 22% | Valerenga 57%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 5.00 | Draw 4.55 | Valerenga 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Valerenga (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 2.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valerenga are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.61 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jun 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 20% | Draw 22% | Valerenga 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 68% | xG Tromso 1.34 / Valerenga 2.27 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.803 / def 1.447 | Valerenga attack 1.283 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
2.27
Valerenga xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Valerenga kick off?
Tromso vs Valerenga kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 20 June 2021 at Alfheim Stadion.
Where is Tromso vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Valerenga part of?
Tromso vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 20% chance of winning, Valerenga a 57% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Tromso and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Valerenga?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tromso and Valerenga in?
Valerenga (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Valerenga away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tromso's attack rating (0.80) and Valerenga's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Tromso's defence, projects 2.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 1-3 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
20%
4.89
22%
4.45
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
1 – 3
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Tromso xG
Total xG
3.61
2.27
Valerenga xG
4.89
20%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
10%
9.71
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
2%
47.47
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Tromso and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Tromso and 2.27 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Valerenga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Pre-Season
Valerenga
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tromso and Valerenga runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2026, when Tromso won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tromso's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Tromso
4
Draws
2
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Valerenga?
From 9 meetings on record, Tromso have won 3, Valerenga have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Tromso 4-0 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Valerenga?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Tromso's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 11, as Tromso and Valerenga drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.34 xG and Valerenga 2.27 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tromso fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Valerenga landed 2.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.80 / defence 1.45 against Valerenga attack 1.28 / defence 0.99, drawn from 7/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 20% | Draw 22% | Valerenga 57%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.