Stabaek 0-2 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stabaek vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Sandefjord travel to Nadderud Stadion to take on Stabaek. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 July 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stabaek stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Nadderud Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Sandefjord — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Stabaek) versus 1.10 (Sandefjord). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stabaek, 0 for Sandefjord and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2020, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Stabaek trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Sandefjord trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 53% versus Sandefjord 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 58% | Sandefjord 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.58 xG and Sandefjord 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.783 / defence 1.231 | Sandefjord attack 0.987 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.149. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.58 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sandefjord bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Stabaek's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Stabaek games / 38 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 40% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 32%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Sandefjord 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stabaek as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stabaek offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Stabaek 40% | Sandefjord 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jul 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 40% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Stabaek 1.58 / Sandefjord 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.783 / def 1.231 | Sandefjord attack 0.987 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Sandefjord xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Sandefjord kick off?
Stabaek vs Sandefjord kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 July 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Sandefjord?
Stabaek 0 - 2 Sandefjord.
Where is Stabaek vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Sandefjord part of?
Stabaek vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 40% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Stabaek and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Sandefjord?
Record (2 meetings): Stabaek 1W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Stabaek and Sandefjord in?
Stabaek (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stabaek's attack at 0.78x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.56
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.98
1.40
Sandefjord xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
10%
10.07
7%
15.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.40 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stabaek come into this having played 38 games, going 10W 14D 14L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.16 PPG from 38 outings (12W 8D 18L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stabaek on 1.16 PPG, Sandefjord on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stabaek's home form reads 6W 6D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.22 points per game from 18 outings (7W 1D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Stabaek are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.08 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 10W 14D 14L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 12W 8D 18L in their last 38 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Sandefjord away?
Stabaek's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.33 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stabaek and Sandefjord runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2021, when Stabaek won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stabaek's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Stabaek
2
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Sandefjord?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 3, Sandefjord have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2023, when Stabaek 2-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Sandefjord?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 39%, Sandefjord 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Stabaek) and 61% (Sandefjord).
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Sandefjord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Stabaek's recent matches and 56% of Sandefjord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Stabaek's recent games and 61% of Sandefjord's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandefjord cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Stabaek 0-2 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.58 xG and Sandefjord 1.40 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.78 / defence 1.23 against Sandefjord attack 0.99 / defence 1.25, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 40% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 32%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sandefjord win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 58%, Sandefjord 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sandefjord's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stabaek 1.16 PPG, Sandefjord 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.