Waalwijk 1-2 Roda – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Roda at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Waalwijk face Roda.

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Fixture Analysis

Waalwijk welcome Roda to Mandemakers Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 27). Kick-off is Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Waalwijk stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Waalwijk have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Roda — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Roda away from home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Waalwijk) versus 1.20 (Roda). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Waalwijk's last 10 home games and Roda's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Waalwijk, 0 for Roda and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2025, ended Waalwijk 4–1 Roda — a Waalwijk win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Waalwijk trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Roda trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 65% and Roda 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 65% | Roda 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Waalwijk surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Roda have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.39 xG and Roda 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.899 / defence 1.081 | Roda attack 1.091 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.768 / away 1.490. Data: built from Waalwijk's last 26 games and Roda's last 64.

Result probabilities: Waalwijk 29% | Draw 26% | Roda 45%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 3.43 | Draw 3.84 | Roda 2.23. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.39 / 1.76) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Waalwijk's last 10 home games and Roda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Waalwijk 80% (last 10 home games) | Roda 80% (last 10 away games).

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