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Poisson rates Cambuur at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Ajax vs Cambuur encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 27 as Jong Ajax welcome Cambuur to Sportcomplex De Toekomst. Kick-off is set for Monday 16 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Ajax have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Jong Ajax's home record at Sportcomplex De Toekomst: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Cambuur — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Cambuur have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cambuur — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong Ajax register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cambuur in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Jong Ajax, 2 for Cambuur and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–4 with Cambuur winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Cambuur in-play and half-time data (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Ajax 51% versus Cambuur 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 56% | Cambuur 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.38 xG and Cambuur 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.863 / defence 1.025 | Cambuur attack 1.183 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.487. Data: 63 Jong Ajax games / 61 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 29% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 47%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Cambuur 2.13. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 60% | Cambuur 70% BTTS from recent games.

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