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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

FC OSS host Jong AZ at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

FC OSS — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Frans Heesen Stadion, FC OSS have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Jong AZ have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC OSS at 1.00 PPG versus Jong AZ's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for FC OSS, 3 for Jong AZ and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with FC OSS winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

FC OSS in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 48% versus Jong AZ 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 47% | Jong AZ 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.69 xG and Jong AZ 2.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.938 / defence 1.129 | Jong AZ attack 1.410 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.768 / away 1.490. Jong AZ have an above-average attack strength of 1.410 — the away xG of 2.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 FC OSS games / 64 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC OSS 26% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 52%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 3.85 | Draw 4.76 | Jong AZ 1.92. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.07. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.07 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 2.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean.

On the goals line, Poisson's 4.07 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 70% | Jong AZ 90% BTTS from recent games.

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