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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Dordrecht host Emmen at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at M-Scores Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dordrecht 1.60 PPG, Emmen 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dordrecht register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Emmen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Dordrecht have won 4, Emmen 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Emmen winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Dordrecht trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Emmen trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 54% versus Emmen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 62% | Emmen 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.12 xG and Emmen 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.024 / defence 0.998 | Emmen attack 0.805 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.768 / away 1.490. Data: 64 Dordrecht games / 61 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dordrecht 57% | Draw 23% | Emmen 20%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Emmen 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 70% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.

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