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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

De Graafschap make the trip to De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Jong PSV U21's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at De Herdgang this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Jong PSV U21 are significantly better at De Herdgang than their overall form suggests.

De Graafschap (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.

De Graafschap away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.70 for De Graafschap. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, De Graafschap in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 9 meetings, De Graafschap have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to Jong PSV U21's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.1 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 2–3 with De Graafschap winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. De Graafschap have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 4.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

Jong PSV U21 — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.

De Graafschap — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 69% and De Graafschap 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 77% | De Graafschap 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.93 xG and De Graafschap 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.237 / defence 0.946 | De Graafschap attack 1.016 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.768 / away 1.490. Data: 64 Jong PSV U21 games / 64 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 48% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 27%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | De Graafschap 3.70. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.36 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 60% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.

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