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Poisson rates Cambuur at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Waalwijk encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Waalwijk travel to Kooi Stadion to take on Cambuur. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Cambuur have posted 8W 2D 0L at Kooi Stadion — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Waalwijk's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Cambuur are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cambuur register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Waalwijk in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Cambuur, 2 for Waalwijk and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 2–4 with Waalwijk winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Cambuur trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Waalwijk trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 52% versus Waalwijk 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 52% | Waalwijk 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.07 xG and Waalwijk 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.191 / defence 0.781 | Waalwijk attack 1.032 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.483. Cambuur's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Cambuur games / 27 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cambuur 57% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 21%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Waalwijk 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 60% | Waalwijk 80% BTTS from recent games.

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