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Poisson rates Roda at 57% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs MVV encounter.

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Full Analysis

Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus MVV in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 11:15 UTC.

Current Form

Roda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Roda's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season.

MVV (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.

MVV's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Roda, 1.50 for MVV — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Roda, who have won 5 of the last 9 meetings against MVV — a 3D 1W return for the visitors.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The historical record gives Roda a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

MVV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 62% versus MVV 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 62% | MVV 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.08 xG and MVV 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.924 / defence 1.133 | MVV attack 0.728 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 1.689 / away 1.479. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.332 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Roda games / 65 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Roda 57% | Draw 22% | MVV 21%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | MVV 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Roda (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 70% | MVV 50% BTTS from recent games.

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