Vitesse 2-2 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vitesse at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
GelreDome plays host to Vitesse versus VVV Venlo in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Vitesse's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse at GelreDome this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VVV Venlo have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Vitesse, 1 for VVV Venlo and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Vitesse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Vitesse half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
VVV Venlo half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 62% versus VVV Venlo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 67% | VVV Venlo 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.49 xG and VVV Venlo 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.879 / defence 0.964 | VVV Venlo attack 0.947 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.727 / away 1.483. Data: 64 Vitesse games / 64 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 40% | Draw 27% | VVV Venlo 33%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | VVV Venlo 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vitesse are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitesse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 80% | VVV Venlo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 40% | Draw 27% | VVV Venlo 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Vitesse 1.49 / VVV Venlo 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.879 / def 0.964 | VVV Venlo attack 0.947 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.727 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.35
VVV Venlo xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Vitesse vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs VVV Venlo?
Vitesse 2 - 2 VVV Venlo.
Where is Vitesse vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs VVV Venlo part of?
Vitesse vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 40% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Vitesse and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and VVV Venlo?
Record (3 meetings): Vitesse 2W | Draws 0 | VVV Venlo 1W.
What form are Vitesse and VVV Venlo in?
Vitesse (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vitesse's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — VVV Venlo's attack (0.95x) against Vitesse's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
40%
2.52
27%
3.72
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.84
1.35
VVV Venlo xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
8%
13.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Vitesse and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.35 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Vitesse have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 20W 19D 25L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VVV Venlo's form line: 22W 10D 32L from 64 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Vitesse against 1.19 for VVV Venlo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Vitesse have posted 1.38 PPG from 32 outings (12W 8D 12L).
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 11W 5D 16L from 32 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Vitesse are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.23 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 20W 19D 25L in their last 64 games (1.23 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 22W 10D 32L in their last 64 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or VVV Venlo away?
Vitesse's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.38 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VVV Venlo won 1-4 on 12 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Vitesse
1
Draws
1
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and VVV Venlo?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 2, VVV Venlo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Vitesse 2-2 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and VVV Venlo?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 66%, VVV Venlo 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Vitesse and 72% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play VVV Venlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Vitesse's games and 53% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Vitesse's matches and 72% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Vitesse and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vitesse and VVV Venlo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse and VVV Venlo finished level at 2-2 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.49 xG and VVV Venlo 1.35 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.88 / defence 0.96 against VVV Venlo attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 40% | Draw 27% | VVV Venlo 33%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 67%, VVV Venlo 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.23 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.