Jong Utrecht 1-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Willem II travel to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch to take on Jong Utrecht. The game is scheduled for Monday 16 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Utrecht have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht's home record at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Willem II — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Willem II have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Jong Utrecht) versus 1.70 (Willem II). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Willem II, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Jong Utrecht.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Willem II winning.
It is worth noting that Willem II have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Jong Utrecht trading profile (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Willem II trading profile (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Utrecht 62% and Willem II 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 62% | Willem II 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 2.00 xG and Willem II 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 1.139 / defence 1.247 | Willem II attack 0.929 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.487. Data: 63 Jong Utrecht games / 25 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 44% | Draw 23% | Willem II 33%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Willem II 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Utrecht are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 80% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 16 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 44% | Draw 23% | Willem II 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG Jong Utrecht 2.00 / Willem II 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 1.139 / def 1.247 | Willem II attack 0.929 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Willem II xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Willem II kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 16 February 2026 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Willem II?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 1 Willem II.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Willem II part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 44% chance of winning, Willem II a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Willem II?
Record (5 meetings): Jong Utrecht 0W | Draws 2 | Willem II 3W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Willem II in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Willem II (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (1.14) and Willem II's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
44%
2.26
23%
4.42
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.73
1.72
Willem II xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.54
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
13%
7.42
Win to Nil
8%
12.66
4%
22.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.72 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 12W 19D 32L from 63 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 30L across 63 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 0.87 PPG, Willem II on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 8W 10D 14L from 32 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 8W 9D 15L across 32 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.19 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Utrecht have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Willem II in 62%.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Willem II in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 12W 19D 32L in their last 63 games (0.87 PPG), while Willem II have gone 18W 15D 30L in their last 63 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Willem II away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.06 PPG; Willem II away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2023, when Willem II won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Jong Utrecht
3
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 0, Willem II have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Jong Utrecht 1-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 62%, Willem II 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Jong Utrecht) and 50% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Jong Utrecht's games and 62% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 50% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Willem II tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Willem II in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Utrecht and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 27, as Jong Utrecht and Willem II drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 2.00 xG and Willem II 1.72 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jong Utrecht fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 1.14 / defence 1.25 against Willem II attack 0.93 / defence 1.02, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 44% | Draw 23% | Willem II 33%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 62%, Willem II 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.87 PPG, Willem II 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.