Almere City FC 0-1 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Almere City FC at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 27 as Almere City FC welcome Helmond Sport to Yanmar Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Almere City FC — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Yanmar Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Almere City FC have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Almere City FC have won 2, Helmond Sport 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Helmond Sport winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 49% versus Helmond Sport 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 58% | Helmond Sport 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.42 xG and Helmond Sport 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.165 / defence 0.976 | Helmond Sport attack 0.629 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.768 / away 1.490. Data: 25 Almere City FC games / 64 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 70% | Draw 19% | Helmond Sport 11%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.43 | Draw 5.26 | Helmond Sport 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Almere City FC at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Almere City FC 60% | Helmond Sport 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 70% | Draw 19% | Helmond Sport 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 56% | xG Almere City FC 2.42 / Helmond Sport 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.165 / def 0.976 | Helmond Sport attack 0.629 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.768 / away 1.490 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Helmond Sport xG
56%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport?
Almere City FC 0 - 1 Helmond Sport.
Where is Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport part of?
Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 70% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Almere City FC and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Helmond Sport?
Record (5 meetings): Almere City FC 2W | Draws 1 | Helmond Sport 2W.
What form are Almere City FC and Helmond Sport in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 1.17x the league average against Helmond Sport's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 2.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
70%
1.44
19%
5.22
11%
8.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.34
0.91
Helmond Sport xG
1.44
70%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
8.86
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
9%
11.27
Win to Nil
28%
3.59
1%
99.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Almere City FC and 0.91 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 16W 13D 30L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport's form line: 17W 13D 29L from 59 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 1.03 PPG, Helmond Sport on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 1.21 PPG from 28 outings (9W 7D 12L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 4W 5D 19L from 28 away games — 0.61 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Helmond Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.32 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helmond Sport in 64%.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 16W 13D 30L in their last 59 games (1.03 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 17W 13D 29L in their last 59 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Helmond Sport away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.21 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and Helmond Sport runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Helmond Sport have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2022, when Almere City FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Almere City FC
1
Draws
3
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Helmond Sport?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 2, Helmond Sport have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Almere City FC 0-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Helmond Sport?
Helmond Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 50%, Helmond Sport 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Almere City FC and 68% for Helmond Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Helmond Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Almere City FC's games and 61% of Helmond Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Almere City FC's matches and 68% of Helmond Sport's.
Do Almere City FC and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Helmond Sport defy the odds to beat Almere City FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat Almere City FC 0-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.42 xG and Helmond Sport 0.91 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Almere City FC fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.98 against Helmond Sport attack 0.63 / defence 1.18, drawn from 25/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 70% | Draw 19% | Helmond Sport 11%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Helmond Sport win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 58%, Helmond Sport 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.03 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helmond Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.