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Poisson model rates Roda at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 27 as Waalwijk welcome Roda to Mandemakers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 4W 2D 4L at Mandemakers Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Roda — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Roda away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Waalwijk) versus 1.20 (Roda). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Waalwijk have won 1, Roda 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 4–1 with Waalwijk winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Waalwijk trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Roda trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 65% and Roda 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 65% | Roda 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.39 xG and Roda 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.899 / defence 1.081 | Roda attack 1.091 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.768 / away 1.490. Data: 26 Waalwijk games / 64 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Waalwijk 29% | Draw 26% | Roda 45%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Roda 2.22. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | Roda 80% BTTS from recent games.

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