VVV Venlo 1-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VVV Venlo at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Seacon - De Koel plays host to VVV Venlo versus FC Eindhoven in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VVV Venlo have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Seacon - De Koel this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC Eindhoven arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Across 9 previous meetings, VVV Venlo are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 3 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with VVV Venlo winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both VVV Venlo and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
VVV Venlo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 50% versus FC Eindhoven 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 61% | FC Eindhoven 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.52 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.810 / defence 1.046 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.929 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.767 / away 1.515. Data: 63 VVV Venlo games / 62 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 37% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 35%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | FC Eindhoven 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
VVV Venlo dominate the H2H record, yet FC Eindhoven are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, VVV Venlo are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Eindhoven (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: VVV Venlo 40% | FC Eindhoven 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Seacon - De Koel • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 37% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG VVV Venlo 1.52 / FC Eindhoven 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.810 / def 1.046 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.929 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.767 / away 1.515 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.47
FC Eindhoven xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Seacon - De Koel.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven?
VVV Venlo 1 - 0 FC Eindhoven.
Where is VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Seacon - De Koel.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven part of?
VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 37% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both VVV Venlo and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and FC Eindhoven?
Record (9 meetings): VVV Venlo 5W | Draws 3 | FC Eindhoven 1W.
What form are VVV Venlo and FC Eindhoven in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
VVV Venlo's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.93x) against VVV Venlo's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 63/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
37%
2.70
28%
3.58
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.99
1.47
FC Eindhoven xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
8%
11.78
8%
13.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.47 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, VVV Venlo have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 21W 9D 32L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 23W 13D 26L from 62 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for VVV Venlo against 1.32 for FC Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VVV Venlo have posted 1.17 PPG from 30 outings (10W 5D 15L).
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 13W 6D 11L from 30 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.50 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 21W 9D 32L in their last 62 games (1.16 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 23W 13D 26L in their last 62 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.17 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.50 PPG.
Have VVV Venlo or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
VVV Venlo have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
VVV Venlo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Eindhoven won 4-0 on 11 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VVV Venlo have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
VVV Venlo
3
Draws
1
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 6, FC Eindhoven have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when VVV Venlo 1-0 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and FC Eindhoven?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 50%, FC Eindhoven 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (VVV Venlo) and 53% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo have failed to score in 37% of games; FC Eindhoven in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of VVV Venlo's recent matches and 43% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of VVV Venlo's recent games and 53% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VVV Venlo and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VVV Venlo edge out FC Eindhoven 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat FC Eindhoven 1-0 at Seacon - De Koel, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.52 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.47 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Eindhoven landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.81 / defence 1.05 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 37% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 35%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 61%, FC Eindhoven 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.16 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.