🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Willem II at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Vitesse encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 28 as Willem II welcome Vitesse to Koning Willem II Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Willem II — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Willem II at Koning Willem II Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Vitesse have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Vitesse away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Willem II at 1.70 PPG versus Vitesse's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Willem II register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Vitesse in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Willem II hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Vitesse, with 0 draws in between.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Willem II winning.

The historical record gives Willem II a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Willem II in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Vitesse in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 62% and Vitesse 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 52% | Vitesse 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.29 xG and Vitesse 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.821 / defence 0.879 | Vitesse attack 0.941 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.483. Data: 26 Willem II games / 65 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Willem II 37% | Draw 29% | Vitesse 34%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Vitesse 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 60% | Vitesse 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights