Jong Utrecht 1-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 44%, yet the head-to-head data favours Willem II — this Jong Utrecht vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Willem II travel to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch to take on Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Monday 16 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Jong Utrecht have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Jong Utrecht's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Willem II — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Willem II have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Jong Utrecht) versus 1.70 (Willem II). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Jong Utrecht's last 10 home games and Willem II's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

Willem II have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Jong Utrecht.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2025, ended Jong Utrecht 1–2 Willem II — a Willem II win.

Willem II have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

In-Play Data

Jong Utrecht trading profile (last 63 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Willem II trading profile (last 63 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Utrecht 62% and Willem II 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 62% | Willem II 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 2.00 xG and Willem II 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 1.139 / defence 1.247 | Willem II attack 0.929 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.487. Jong Utrecht's defence rating of 1.247 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Willem II's projected output up. Data: built from Jong Utrecht's last 63 games and Willem II's last 25.

Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 44% | Draw 23% | Willem II 33%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.26 | Draw 4.42 | Willem II 3.02. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (2.00 / 1.72) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Jong Utrecht are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jong Utrecht's last 10 home games and Willem II's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong Utrecht 80% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights