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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Jong Utrecht travel to De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 5W 3D 2L at De Vijverberg — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (De Graafschap) versus 1.60 (Jong Utrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for De Graafschap, 1 for Jong Utrecht and 5 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2025, ended 3–2 with De Graafschap winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

De Graafschap in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 64% and Jong Utrecht 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 61% | Jong Utrecht 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.07 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.122 / defence 1.088 | Jong Utrecht attack 1.077 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.483. Data: 65 De Graafschap games / 64 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: De Graafschap 45% | Draw 22% | Jong Utrecht 32%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | Jong Utrecht 3.12. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.81 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | Jong Utrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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