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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Jong Ajax make the trip to De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

De Graafschap (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at De Vijverberg, De Graafschap have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for De Graafschap, 1.10 for Jong Ajax — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Jong Ajax in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: De Graafschap 3W, Jong Ajax 4W, 2D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Jong Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 64% versus Jong Ajax 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 60% | Jong Ajax 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.04 xG and Jong Ajax 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.007 / defence 1.161 | Jong Ajax attack 0.907 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.534. Data: 63 De Graafschap games / 62 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: De Graafschap 46% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 30%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Jong Ajax 3.33. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 90% | Jong Ajax 90% BTTS from recent games.

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