Padova 1-0 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Padova at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Padova face Carrarese.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Carrarese travel to Stadio Euganeo to take on Padova in Serie B (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 10 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Padova have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Padova have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Carrarese — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Carrarese's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Padova) versus 1.40 (Carrarese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Padova's last 10 home games and Carrarese's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Padova have won 0, Carrarese 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2025, ended Padova 0–0 Carrarese — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Padova trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Carrarese trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 56% versus Carrarese 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 44% | Carrarese 56%). Note also that Carrarese surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Padova recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.57 xG and Carrarese 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.891 / defence 1.250 | Carrarese attack 1.094 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.066. Carrarese's defence rating of 1.345 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Padova's projected output up. Padova's defence rating of 1.250 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Carrarese's projected output up. Data: built from Padova's last 23 games and Carrarese's last 61.
Result probabilities: Padova 40% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 35%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.52 | Draw 3.89 | Carrarese 2.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.57 / 1.46) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Padova as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Padova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Padova's last 10 home games and Carrarese's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Padova 80% (last 10 home games) | Carrarese 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 40% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Padova 1.57 / Carrarese 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.891 / def 1.250 | Carrarese attack 1.094 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Padova (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Padova xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Carrarese xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Padova vs Carrarese FAQs
What time does Padova vs Carrarese kick off?
Padova vs Carrarese kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 10 February 2026 at Stadio Euganeo.
What was the final score in Padova vs Carrarese?
Padova 1 - 0 Carrarese.
Where is Padova vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Carrarese part of?
Padova vs Carrarese is a Serie B fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 40% chance of winning, Carrarese a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Padova and Carrarese will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Padova vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Padova's attack rating (0.89) and Carrarese's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Padova's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Padova's last 23 games and Carrarese's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.89
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Padova xG
Total xG
3.03
1.46
Carrarese xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
9%
10.84
7%
13.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Padova vs Carrarese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Padova and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Padova and 1.46 for Carrarese, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Padova have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 6W 8D 9L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Carrarese's form line: 7W 9D 7L from 23 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Padova on 1.13 PPG, Carrarese on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Padova have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 11 home games (2W 5D 4L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 2W 4D 5L from their last 11 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Padova are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.35 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
Padova (Home) vs Carrarese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Padova
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Padova vs Carrarese Form FAQs
What form are Padova and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 6W 8D 9L in their last 23 games (1.13 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 7W 9D 7L in their last 23 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Carrarese away?
Padova's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.00 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Padova or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Padova have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Carrarese in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2025. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Padova's record when hosting Carrarese specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Padova
1
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Padova vs Carrarese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Carrarese?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Padova have won 1, Carrarese have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Padova and Carrarese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Padova 0-2 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Padova at 73%, Carrarese at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Padova) and 73% (Carrarese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Padova vs Carrarese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Padova and Carrarese matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Padova's games and 82% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Padova and Carrarese matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Padova's matches and 73% of Carrarese's.
Do Padova and Carrarese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of Padova's recent matches and 82% of Carrarese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Padova edge out Carrarese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Padova beat Carrarese 1-0 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.57 xG and Carrarese 1.46 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Carrarese landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.89 / defence 1.25 against Carrarese attack 1.09 / defence 1.34, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Padova 40% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 35%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 44%, Carrarese 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Padova's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Carrarese's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Padova 1.13 PPG, Carrarese 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Padova win broke the near-deadlock. Padova (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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