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Poisson model rates Modena at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Alberto Braglia plays host to Modena versus Carrarese in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Modena have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Carrarese (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie B this season, Carrarese have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Modena have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Carrarese in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Modena, 1 for Carrarese and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 55% versus Carrarese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 47% | Carrarese 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.57 xG and Carrarese 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.924 / defence 1.032 | Carrarese attack 0.968 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.060. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Modena games / 62 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Modena 49% | Draw 27% | Carrarese 25%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Carrarese 4.00. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Modena 60% | Carrarese 80% BTTS from recent games.

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