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Poisson model rates Empoli at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Juve Stabia make the trip to Stadio Carlo Castellani to face Empoli in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Empoli have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie B this season, Juve Stabia have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Juve Stabia are 0.60 PPG clear of Empoli in recent Serie B fixtures (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Empoli, 1 for Juve Stabia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 0–2 with Juve Stabia winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Empoli — key trading statistics (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 54% versus Juve Stabia 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 48% | Juve Stabia 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.31 xG and Juve Stabia 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.923 / defence 0.995 | Juve Stabia attack 0.894 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.052. Data: 23 Empoli games / 61 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Empoli 45% | Draw 29% | Juve Stabia 26%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Juve Stabia 3.85. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Juve Stabia (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Empoli 60% | Juve Stabia 50%.

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