Sampdoria 3-3 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Luigi Ferraris plays host to Sampdoria versus Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Tuesday 10 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sampdoria have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Palermo (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Palermo are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Palermo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sampdoria, 2 for Palermo and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Palermo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sampdoria — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Palermo — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 53% versus Palermo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 39% | Palermo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 0.97 xG and Palermo 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.946 / defence 0.944 | Palermo attack 1.120 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.052. Palermo's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 Sampdoria games / 61 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 30% | Draw 32% | Palermo 38%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Palermo 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Sampdoria 60% | Palermo 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 30% | Draw 32% | Palermo 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Sampdoria 0.97 / Palermo 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.946 / def 0.944 | Palermo attack 1.120 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Palermo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Palermo xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Palermo kick off?
Sampdoria vs Palermo kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 10 February 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Palermo?
Sampdoria 3 - 3 Palermo.
Where is Sampdoria vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Palermo part of?
Sampdoria vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 30% chance of winning, Palermo a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sampdoria and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Palermo?
Record (6 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 3 | Palermo 2W.
What form are Sampdoria and Palermo in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Palermo (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.95) and Palermo's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.12x) against Sampdoria's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
30%
3.29
32%
3.14
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.08
1.11
Palermo xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
10%
9.99
14%
7.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.9 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.11 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 15W 24D 23L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo's form line: 26W 18D 18L from 62 games, 1.55 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sampdoria.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.48 PPG from 31 outings (12W 10D 9L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 10W 10D 11L from 31 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sampdoria are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.42 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Palermo in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 15W 24D 23L in their last 62 games (1.11 PPG), while Palermo have gone 26W 18D 18L in their last 62 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Palermo away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.48 PPG; Palermo away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Palermo in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 10 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
4
Draws
2
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Palermo?
From 7 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Palermo have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2026, when Sampdoria 3-3 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 36%, Palermo 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Sampdoria) and 52% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 36% of games; Palermo in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 61% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Sampdoria's recent games and 52% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Palermo tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Palermo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria and Palermo share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria and Palermo finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.97 xG and Palermo 1.11 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Sampdoria beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palermo outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.95 / defence 0.94 against Palermo attack 1.12 / defence 0.79, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 30% | Draw 32% | Palermo 38%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 39%, Palermo 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.