🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Padova travel to Stadio Romeo Menti to take on Juve Stabia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Juve Stabia have posted 6W 4D 0L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Juve Stabia are significantly better at Stadio Romeo Menti than their overall form suggests.

Across all Serie B games this season, Padova have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Padova's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Juve Stabia are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Juve Stabia's 30% rate and Padova's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Juve Stabia, 0 for Padova and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Juve Stabia trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Padova trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 41% versus Padova 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 41% | Padova 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.27 xG and Padova 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.933 / defence 0.791 | Padova attack 0.725 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.016. Juve Stabia's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Juve Stabia games / 22 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 53% | Draw 31% | Padova 16%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | Padova 6.25. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Padova's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 30% | Padova 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights