Juve Stabia 3-3 Padova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Padova travel to Stadio Romeo Menti to take on Juve Stabia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juve Stabia have posted 6W 4D 0L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Juve Stabia are significantly better at Stadio Romeo Menti than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Padova have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Padova's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Juve Stabia are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Juve Stabia's 30% rate and Padova's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Juve Stabia, 0 for Padova and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Juve Stabia trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Padova trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 41% versus Padova 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 41% | Padova 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.27 xG and Padova 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.933 / defence 0.791 | Padova attack 0.725 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.016. Juve Stabia's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Juve Stabia games / 22 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 53% | Draw 31% | Padova 16%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | Padova 6.25. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Padova's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 30% | Padova 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 53% | Draw 31% | Padova 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 32% | xG Juve Stabia 1.27 / Padova 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.933 / def 0.791 | Padova attack 0.725 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Padova xG
32%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Padova kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Padova kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Padova?
Juve Stabia 3 - 3 Padova.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Padova part of?
Juve Stabia vs Padova is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 53% chance of winning, Padova a 16% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Juve Stabia and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Padova?
Record (1 meetings): Juve Stabia 0W | Draws 1 | Padova 0W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Padova in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Padova (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juve Stabia's attack at 0.93x the league average against Padova's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Padova's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.2%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
53%
1.90
31%
3.22
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
1.85
0.58
Padova xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.08
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
29%
3.40
5%
21.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.9 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.58 for Padova, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 8W 10D 4L from 22 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Padova, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 9L across 22 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juve Stabia by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Padova heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 6W 5D 0L from 11 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Padova's away record stands at 4W 2D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 0.95 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Padova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Padova in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 8W 10D 4L in their last 22 games (1.55 PPG), while Padova have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Padova away?
Juve Stabia's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 2.09 PPG; Padova away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Padova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Padova in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
0
Padova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Padova?
From 2 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 0, Padova have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Padova last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Juve Stabia 3-3 Padova.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Padova see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Juve Stabia 27% BTTS, Padova 36%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Juve Stabia and 36% for Padova.
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 73% of their matches; Padova in 36%; Juve Stabia have failed to score in 27% of games; Padova in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Padova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 36% of Padova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 36% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Padova tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Padova in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juve Stabia and Padova share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia and Padova finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.27 xG and Padova 0.58 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Juve Stabia beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Padova outscored their 0.58 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.93 / defence 0.79 against Padova attack 0.72 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 53% | Draw 31% | Padova 16%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 41%, Padova 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Padova's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Padova (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.