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Poisson model favours Venezia (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Venezia face Modena.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Pierluigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Tuesday 10 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Venezia have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Venezia at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.

Modena (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Modena have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The points-per-game gap of 2.00 in Venezia's favour (2.80 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Across 5 previous meetings, Venezia are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Venezia winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Venezia and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 54% versus Modena 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 51% | Modena 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.30 xG and Modena 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.300 / defence 0.840 | Modena attack 0.892 / defence 0.762. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.066. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — their λ of 1.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Modena's defence strength of 0.762 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 23 Venezia games / 61 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Venezia 47% | Draw 31% | Modena 22%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Modena 4.55. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 40% | Modena 30% BTTS from recent games.

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