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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Luigi Ferraris plays host to Sampdoria versus Padova in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Sampdoria (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sampdoria at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Padova's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Padova have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Sampdoria against 1.20 for Padova. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sampdoria 0W, Padova 0W, 1D.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Sampdoria — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Padova — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 62% versus Padova 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 42% | Padova 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.69 xG and Padova 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 1.098 / defence 1.103 | Padova attack 0.925 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.060. Padova bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Sampdoria games / 24 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sampdoria 51% | Draw 26% | Padova 24%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Padova 4.17. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sampdoria as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 60% | Padova 40%.

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