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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Carrarese host Sudtirol at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Carrarese — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Carrarese's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadio dei Marmi this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Serie B games this season, Sudtirol have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sudtirol away from home this season: 1W 7D 2L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Carrarese at 1.40 PPG versus Sudtirol's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Carrarese have won 1, Sudtirol 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Carrarese in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Sudtirol in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 50% versus Sudtirol 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 50% | Sudtirol 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.19 xG and Sudtirol 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 1.066 / defence 0.839 | Sudtirol attack 0.880 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.016. Data: 60 Carrarese games / 60 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Carrarese 46% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 23%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Sudtirol 4.35. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Carrarese are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 30% | Sudtirol 60% BTTS from recent games.

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