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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 24 as Sudtirol welcome Monza to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Sudtirol — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sudtirol have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadio Marco Druso — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Across all Serie B games this season, Monza have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Monza's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Sudtirol) versus 1.80 (Monza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sudtirol, 0 for Monza and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Sudtirol trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Monza trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 57% versus Monza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 49% | Monza 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.28 xG and Monza 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.025 / defence 0.928 | Monza attack 1.047 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.060. Data: 61 Sudtirol games / 23 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sudtirol 42% | Draw 29% | Monza 30%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Monza 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 50% | Monza 50%.

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