Cagliari 1-3 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lazio (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cagliari face Lazio.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cagliari host Lazio at Unipol Domus in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cagliari — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari at Unipol Domus this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cagliari are significantly better at Unipol Domus than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lazio are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cagliari register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Lazio in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cagliari, 2 for Lazio and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Lazio winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cagliari trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Lazio trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 58% versus Lazio 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 50% | Lazio 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.24 xG and Lazio 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.882 / defence 1.280 | Lazio attack 1.048 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.083. Data: 23 Cagliari games / 60 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 31% | Draw 29% | Lazio 41%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Lazio 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 80% | Lazio 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 31% | Draw 29% | Lazio 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Cagliari 1.24 / Lazio 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.882 / def 1.280 | Lazio attack 1.048 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Lazio (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Lazio xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Lazio kick off?
Cagliari vs Lazio kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Lazio?
Cagliari 1 - 3 Lazio.
Where is Cagliari vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Lazio part of?
Cagliari vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 31% chance of winning, Lazio a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cagliari and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Lazio?
Record (3 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 1 | Lazio 2W.
What form are Cagliari and Lazio in?
Cagliari (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Lazio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 0.88x the league average against Lazio's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
31%
3.26
29%
3.49
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.69
1.45
Lazio xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
7%
13.92
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.45 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cagliari come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 22D 19L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lazio sit at 1.80 PPG from 60 outings (32W 12D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cagliari's home form reads 15W 10D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lazio have taken 1.67 points per game from 30 outings (15W 5D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.42 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Lazio in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 19W 22D 19L in their last 60 games (1.32 PPG), while Lazio have gone 32W 12D 16L in their last 60 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Lazio away?
Cagliari's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.83 PPG; Lazio away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Lazio in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Lazio runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2022, when Lazio won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cagliari
2
Draws
6
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Lazio?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 0, Lazio have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Cagliari 0-0 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 73%, Lazio 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Cagliari) and 40% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Lazio in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Lazio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Cagliari's games and 37% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Cagliari's recent games and 40% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Lazio tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Lazio in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Cagliari 1-3 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.24 xG and Lazio 1.45 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lazio outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.88 / defence 1.28 against Lazio attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 23/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 31% | Draw 29% | Lazio 41%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 50%, Lazio 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Lazio's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. Cagliari (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.