Udinese 1-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cagliari make the trip to Bluenergy Stadium to face Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Udinese (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Bluenergy Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cagliari's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Udinese against 0.80 for Cagliari. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Udinese lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Udinese half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 53% versus Cagliari 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 48% | Cagliari 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.88 xG and Cagliari 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.952 / defence 1.170 | Cagliari attack 0.646 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.112. Cagliari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.356 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Udinese games / 24 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 61% | Draw 25% | Cagliari 15%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Cagliari 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Udinese (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Udinese 70% | Cagliari 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 61% | Draw 25% | Cagliari 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 49% | xG Udinese 1.88 / Cagliari 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.952 / def 1.170 | Cagliari attack 0.646 / def 1.356 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Udinese (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Cagliari xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Cagliari kick off?
Udinese vs Cagliari kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Cagliari?
Udinese 1 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Udinese vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Cagliari part of?
Udinese vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 61% chance of winning, Cagliari a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Udinese and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Cagliari?
Record (3 meetings): Udinese 2W | Draws 1 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are Udinese and Cagliari in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Cagliari (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Udinese's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Cagliari's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.65x) against Udinese's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
61%
1.65
25%
4.08
15%
6.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.72
0.84
Cagliari xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
6.69
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
2%
43.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Udinese and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Udinese and 0.84 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Cagliari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 14W 26D 22L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cagliari's form line: 19W 22D 21L from 62 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Udinese against 1.27 for Cagliari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (7W 15D 8L).
On the road, Cagliari have gone 4W 12D 14L from 30 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cagliari's season.
Attack vs Defence
Udinese are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.18 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 14W 26D 22L in their last 62 games (1.10 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 19W 22D 21L in their last 62 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Cagliari away?
Udinese's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.20 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 0-4 on 18 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Udinese
3
Draws
0
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Udinese have won 5, Cagliari have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Cagliari 0-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Cagliari?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 63%, Cagliari 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Udinese) and 47% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 33%; Cagliari in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Udinese's recent matches and 43% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Udinese's recent games and 47% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Cagliari tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Cagliari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Udinese and Cagliari drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.88 xG and Cagliari 0.84 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Udinese fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.95 / defence 1.17 against Cagliari attack 0.65 / defence 1.36, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 61% | Draw 25% | Cagliari 15%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 48%, Cagliari 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Cagliari's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.10 PPG, Cagliari 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.