AS Roma 2-4 Inter – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Inter at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Inter encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

AS Roma and Inter meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form

AS Roma (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, AS Roma have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — AS Roma are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Inter have collected 2.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Inter's away record over their last 10 away games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Inter are 0.90 PPG clear of AS Roma over their recent games (2.60 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Inter edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended AS Roma 0–1 Inter — a Inter win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Inter goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 53% versus Inter 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 48% | Inter 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.12 xG and Inter 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.317 / defence 0.820 | Inter attack 1.616 / defence 0.605. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.095. AS Roma carry an above-average attack rating of 1.317 — their 1.12 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Inter bring a tight defence (rating 0.605, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling AS Roma's projected output down. Inter have an above-average attack rating of 1.616, which lifts their away xG to 1.45. Data: built from AS Roma's last 61 games and Inter's last 60.

Result probabilities: AS Roma 28% | Draw 29% | Inter 43%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 3.59 | Draw 3.44 | Inter 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inter if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AS Roma 50% (last 10 home games) | Inter 40% (last 10 away games).

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