Salernitana 1-3 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Empoli at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salernitana vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salernitana host Empoli at Stadio Arechi in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Salernitana have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Salernitana have posted 1W 3D 6L at Stadio Arechi — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Empoli stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Salernitana at 0.50 PPG versus Empoli's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Empoli, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Salernitana.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Empoli winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Empoli have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Salernitana in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Empoli in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 57% versus Empoli 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 59% | Empoli 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.24 xG and Empoli 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.880 / defence 1.428 | Empoli attack 0.814 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.071. Data: 61 Salernitana games / 61 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 35% | Draw 30% | Empoli 35%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Empoli 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Salernitana 80% | Empoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Friday 9 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 35% | Draw 30% | Empoli 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Salernitana 1.24 / Empoli 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.880 / def 1.428 | Empoli attack 0.814 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Empoli xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Empoli kick off?
Salernitana vs Empoli kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 9 February 2024 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Empoli?
Salernitana 1 - 3 Empoli.
Where is Salernitana vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Empoli part of?
Salernitana vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 35% chance of winning, Empoli a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Salernitana and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Empoli?
Record (5 meetings): Salernitana 0W | Draws 2 | Empoli 3W.
What form are Salernitana and Empoli in?
Salernitana (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Empoli (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Salernitana's attack at 0.88x the league average against Empoli's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Salernitana's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
35%
2.88
30%
3.31
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.48
1.24
Empoli xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
10%
9.98
10%
9.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.24 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Salernitana have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 11W 22D 28L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Empoli's form line: 14W 19D 28L from 61 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salernitana on 0.90 PPG, Empoli on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Salernitana have posted 1.13 PPG from 30 outings (8W 10D 12L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 4W 12D 14L from 30 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Salernitana are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.85 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Empoli in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 11W 22D 28L in their last 61 games (0.90 PPG), while Empoli have gone 14W 19D 28L in their last 61 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Empoli away?
Salernitana's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 1.13 PPG; Empoli away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Salernitana and Empoli runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Empoli go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Salernitana's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Salernitana
2
Draws
4
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Empoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 0, Empoli have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2024, when Salernitana 1-3 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Empoli?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 63%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Salernitana) and 33% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Salernitana's games and 50% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salernitana vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Salernitana's recent games and 33% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salernitana and Empoli tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Empoli in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Salernitana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Salernitana 1-3 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.24 xG and Empoli 1.24 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Empoli outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.88 / defence 1.43 against Empoli attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 35% | Draw 30% | Empoli 35%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Empoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 59%, Empoli 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salernitana 0.90 PPG, Empoli 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Salernitana (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.