Genoa 1-4 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Genoa face Atalanta.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atalanta make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie A (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Sunday 11 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Genoa's record over their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Genoa have posted 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Atalanta (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Atalanta's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Genoa against 1.90 for Atalanta. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Atalanta edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Genoa 0–2 Atalanta — a Atalanta win.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Genoa — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Atalanta — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 43% versus Atalanta 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 38% | Atalanta 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Genoa surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Atalanta have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.20 xG and Atalanta 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.872 / defence 0.933 | Atalanta attack 1.014 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.100. Data: built from Genoa's last 23 games and Atalanta's last 60.
Result probabilities: Genoa 38% | Draw 33% | Atalanta 30%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.65 | Draw 3.05 | Atalanta 3.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genoa at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 0.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Genoa 60% (last 10 home games) | Atalanta 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 38% | Draw 33% | Atalanta 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Genoa 1.20 / Atalanta 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.872 / def 0.933 | Atalanta attack 1.014 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Genoa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Atalanta xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genoa vs Atalanta FAQs
What time does Genoa vs Atalanta kick off?
Genoa vs Atalanta kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Atalanta?
Genoa 1 - 4 Atalanta.
Where is Genoa vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Atalanta part of?
Genoa vs Atalanta is a Serie A fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 38% chance of winning, Atalanta a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Genoa and Atalanta will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Genoa vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.87x the league average against Atalanta's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atalanta's attack (1.01x) against Genoa's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Genoa's last 23 games and Atalanta's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
38%
2.65
33%
3.05
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.25
1.04
Atalanta xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
9%
11.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genoa vs Atalanta Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Genoa and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Genoa and 1.04 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 27W 19D 14L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Atalanta's form line: 31W 10D 19L from 60 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Genoa against 1.72 for Atalanta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genoa have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 29 home games (16W 10D 3L).
On the road, Atalanta have gone 12W 6D 11L from their last 29 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.77 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
Genoa (Home) vs Atalanta (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genoa
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Genoa vs Atalanta Form FAQs
What form are Genoa and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 27W 19D 14L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 31W 10D 19L in their last 60 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Atalanta away?
Genoa's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 2.00 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Genoa or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Atalanta in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won Atalanta 5-1 Genoa on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 1D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atalanta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Genoa
3
Draws
5
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Genoa vs Atalanta H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Atalanta?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Genoa have won 0, Atalanta have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Atalanta last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Atalanta 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 41%, Atalanta 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Genoa) and 45% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Atalanta in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genoa vs Atalanta Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genoa and Atalanta matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Genoa's recent matches and 48% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genoa and Atalanta matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Genoa's recent games and 45% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Atalanta matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Genoa's recent matches and 76% of Atalanta's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atalanta run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Genoa 1-4 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.20 xG and Atalanta 1.04 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Atalanta outscored their 1.04 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.87 / defence 0.93 against Atalanta attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 23/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 38% | Draw 33% | Atalanta 30%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Atalanta win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 38%, Atalanta 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Atalanta's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.67 PPG, Atalanta 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atalanta (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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