AS Roma 4-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AS Roma face Cagliari.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 23 as AS Roma welcome Cagliari to Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off is set for Monday 5 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. AS Roma register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cagliari in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
AS Roma hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Cagliari, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 4–1 with AS Roma winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AS Roma and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Cagliari in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 53% versus Cagliari 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 47% | Cagliari 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 2.17 xG and Cagliari 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.210 / defence 0.880 | Cagliari attack 0.711 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.076. Cagliari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing AS Roma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 AS Roma games / 22 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 71% | Draw 20% | Cagliari 9%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.41 | Draw 5.00 | Cagliari 11.11. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (71%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: AS Roma 60% | Cagliari 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Monday 5 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 71% | Draw 20% | Cagliari 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 44% | xG AS Roma 2.17 / Cagliari 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.210 / def 0.880 | Cagliari attack 0.711 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Cagliari xG
44%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Cagliari kick off?
AS Roma vs Cagliari kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 5 February 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Cagliari?
AS Roma 4 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is AS Roma vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Cagliari part of?
AS Roma vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 71% chance of winning, Cagliari a 9% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AS Roma and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Cagliari?
Record (3 meetings): AS Roma 3W | Draws 0 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Cagliari in?
AS Roma (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Cagliari (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.21x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 3-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
71%
1.41
20%
4.98
9%
10.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.84
0.67
Cagliari xG
1.41
71%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
10.89
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
11%
8.71
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
1%
94.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.67 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma come into this having played 60 games, going 28W 14D 18L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 1.32 PPG from 60 outings (19W 22D 19L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Roma on 1.63 PPG, Cagliari on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
AS Roma's home form reads 17W 6D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.83 points per game from 29 outings (4W 12D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cagliari's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.20 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Cagliari in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 19W 22D 19L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Cagliari away?
AS Roma's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.97 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.83 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cagliari in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Roma and Cagliari runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2024, when AS Roma won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Roma's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
AS Roma
1
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 6, Cagliari have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Cagliari?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Cagliari see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 45%, Cagliari 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (AS Roma) and 45% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Cagliari in 34%; Cagliari in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of AS Roma's recent matches and 45% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of AS Roma's recent games and 45% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Cagliari tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Cagliari 4-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 2.17 xG and Cagliari 0.67 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.21 / defence 0.88 against Cagliari attack 0.71 / defence 1.27, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 71% | Draw 20% | Cagliari 9%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 47%, Cagliari 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cagliari's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.63 PPG, Cagliari 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.