AS Roma 4-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (71%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as AS Roma face Cagliari.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
AS Roma welcome Cagliari to Stadio Olimpico in Serie A (matchday 23). Kick-off is Monday 5 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, AS Roma have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AS Roma's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — AS Roma are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cagliari stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cagliari's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of AS Roma's games and 60% of Cagliari's (from AS Roma's last 10 home games and Cagliari's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of AS Roma: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Cagliari, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended AS Roma 4–1 Cagliari — a AS Roma win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both AS Roma and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Cagliari in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 53% versus Cagliari 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 47% | Cagliari 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 2.17 xG and Cagliari 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.210 / defence 0.880 | Cagliari attack 0.711 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.076. Cagliari's defence rating of 1.275 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AS Roma's projected output up. Cagliari's attack rating of 0.711 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Data: built from AS Roma's last 60 games and Cagliari's last 22.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 71% | Draw 20% | Cagliari 9%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.41 | Draw 4.98 | Cagliari 10.89. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (71%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (AS Roma's last 10 home games and Cagliari's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: AS Roma 60% (last 10 home games) | Cagliari 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Monday 5 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 71% | Draw 20% | Cagliari 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG AS Roma 2.17 / Cagliari 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.210 / def 0.880 | Cagliari attack 0.711 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Cagliari xG
44%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Cagliari FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Cagliari kick off?
AS Roma vs Cagliari kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 5 February 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Cagliari?
AS Roma 4 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is AS Roma vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Cagliari part of?
AS Roma vs Cagliari is a Serie A fixture (matchday 23) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 71% chance of winning, Cagliari a 9% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AS Roma and Cagliari will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will AS Roma vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.21x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 60 games and Cagliari's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 3-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
71%
1.41
20%
4.98
9%
10.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.84
0.67
Cagliari xG
1.41
71%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
10.89
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
11%
8.71
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
1%
94.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Cagliari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.67 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma come into this having played 60 games, going 28W 14D 18L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 1.32 PPG from 60 outings (19W 22D 19L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Roma on 1.63 PPG, Cagliari on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
AS Roma's home form reads 17W 6D 6L across their last 29 home games, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 29 away games (4W 12D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cagliari's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.20 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
AS Roma (Home) vs Cagliari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ AS Roma vs Cagliari Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Cagliari in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 19W 22D 19L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Cagliari away?
AS Roma's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.97 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.83 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cagliari in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 27 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: AS Roma have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Feb 2024, when AS Roma won AS Roma 4-0 Cagliari.
AS Roma's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
AS Roma
1
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Cagliari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Cagliari?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 7, Cagliari have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Cagliari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 October 2026: AS Roma 4-2 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Cagliari?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cagliari see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 45%, Cagliari 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (AS Roma) and 45% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Cagliari in 34%; Cagliari in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Cagliari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Cagliari matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of AS Roma's recent matches and 45% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AS Roma and Cagliari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of AS Roma's recent games and 45% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Cagliari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of AS Roma's recent matches and 59% of Cagliari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Cagliari 4-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 2.17 xG and Cagliari 0.67 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.21 / defence 0.88 against Cagliari attack 0.71 / defence 1.27, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 71% | Draw 20% | Cagliari 9%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 47%, Cagliari 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cagliari's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.63 PPG, Cagliari 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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