Atalanta 3-1 Lazio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Atalanta at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atalanta vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gewiss Stadium plays host to Atalanta versus Lazio in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 4 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Atalanta (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's home record at Gewiss Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gewiss Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Atalanta are significantly better at Gewiss Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Lazio have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Atalanta against 1.80 for Lazio. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Atalanta lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 2–3 with Lazio winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Atalanta goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 52% versus Lazio 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 51% | Lazio 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.76 xG and Lazio 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.395 / defence 0.796 | Lazio attack 1.047 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.084. Atalanta carry an above-average attack strength of 1.395 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Atalanta's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Atalanta games / 59 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 56% | Draw 26% | Lazio 18%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Lazio 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Atalanta 40% | Lazio 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 56% | Draw 26% | Lazio 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Atalanta 1.76 / Lazio 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.395 / def 0.796 | Lazio attack 1.047 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Lazio xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Lazio kick off?
Atalanta vs Lazio kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Lazio?
Atalanta 3 - 1 Lazio.
Where is Atalanta vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Lazio part of?
Atalanta vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 56% chance of winning, Lazio a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Atalanta and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Lazio?
Record (5 meetings): Atalanta 1W | Draws 2 | Lazio 2W.
What form are Atalanta and Lazio in?
Atalanta (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Lazio (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Atalanta's attack at 1.40x the league average against Lazio's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lazio's attack (1.05x) against Atalanta's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
56%
1.78
26%
3.80
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.66
0.90
Lazio xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
41%
2.47
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
3%
32.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.90 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Lazio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atalanta's recent record stands at 30W 10D 19L from 59 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 32W 12D 15L across 59 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Atalanta against 1.83 for Lazio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 18W 3D 8L from 29 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lazio's away record stands at 15W 5D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.72 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atalanta are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.42 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Lazio in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 30W 10D 19L in their last 59 games (1.69 PPG), while Lazio have gone 32W 12D 15L in their last 59 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Lazio away?
Atalanta's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.97 PPG; Lazio away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Lazio in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lazio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atalanta
4
Draws
3
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 3, Lazio have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Lazio 0-2 Atalanta.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 55%, Lazio 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Atalanta) and 38% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Lazio in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Atalanta's recent matches and 34% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atalanta vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Atalanta's recent games and 38% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Lazio tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Lazio in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lazio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Lazio 3-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.76 xG and Lazio 0.90 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Atalanta beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.40 / defence 0.80 against Lazio attack 1.05 / defence 0.90, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 56% | Draw 26% | Lazio 18%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 51%, Lazio 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Lazio's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.69 PPG, Lazio 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm. Lazio (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.