Lazio 1-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lazio face Bologna.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lazio welcome Bologna to Stadio Olimpico in Serie A (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 18 February 2024 at 11:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lazio have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Lazio have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bologna stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bologna away from home: 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lazio 2.00 PPG, Bologna 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Lazio, 1 for Bologna and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2023, ended Lazio 0–1 Bologna — a Bologna win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lazio in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Bologna in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 39% versus Bologna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 41% | Bologna 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lazio surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Bologna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.29 xG and Bologna 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 0.815 / defence 0.768 | Bologna attack 0.973 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.103. Lazio have a tight defence (rating 0.768), which is pulling Bologna's projected output down. Data: built from Lazio's last 61 games and Bologna's last 62.
Result probabilities: Lazio 46% | Draw 32% | Bologna 22%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.19 | Draw 3.12 | Bologna 4.49. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lazio's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lazio 30% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 46% | Draw 32% | Bologna 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Lazio 1.29 / Bologna 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 0.815 / def 0.768 | Bologna attack 0.973 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Lazio (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Bologna xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lazio vs Bologna FAQs
What time does Lazio vs Bologna kick off?
Lazio vs Bologna kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Bologna?
Lazio 1 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Lazio vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Bologna part of?
Lazio vs Bologna is a Serie A fixture (matchday 25) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 46% chance of winning, Bologna a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lazio and Bologna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Lazio vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lazio's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Lazio's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lazio's last 61 games and Bologna's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
46%
2.19
32%
3.12
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.11
0.82
Bologna xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
6%
16.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lazio vs Bologna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lazio and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Lazio and 0.82 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Lazio have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 33W 12D 16L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Bologna's form line: 25W 21D 15L from 61 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lazio on 1.82 PPG, Bologna on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lazio have posted 1.90 PPG from their last 29 home games (16W 7D 6L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 8W 10D 11L from their last 29 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bologna's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lazio are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.43 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Bologna
Blended
Lazio (Home) vs Bologna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lazio
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Lazio vs Bologna Form FAQs
What form are Lazio and Bologna in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 33W 12D 16L in their last 61 games (1.82 PPG), while Bologna have gone 25W 21D 15L in their last 61 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Bologna away?
Lazio's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.90 PPG; Bologna away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Lazio or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Bologna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 24 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Lazio have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Mar 2025, when Bologna won Bologna 5-0 Lazio.
Lazio's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lazio
2
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Lazio vs Bologna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Bologna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lazio have won 5, Bologna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Bologna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 August 2026: Bologna 0-1 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Bologna?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 38%, Bologna 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Lazio) and 66% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lazio vs Bologna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lazio and Bologna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Lazio's games and 72% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lazio and Bologna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Lazio's recent games and 66% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lazio and Bologna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Lazio's recent matches and 83% of Bologna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat Lazio 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Lazio 1-2 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.29 xG and Bologna 0.82 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bologna outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 0.81 / defence 0.77 against Bologna attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 46% | Draw 32% | Bologna 22%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Bologna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 41%, Bologna 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.82 PPG, Bologna 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Lazio (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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