Lazio 1-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lazio vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 25 as Lazio welcome Bologna to Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 February 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, Lazio have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lazio 2.00 PPG, Bologna 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Lazio, 2 for Bologna and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lazio in-play and half-time data (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Bologna in-play and half-time data (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 39% versus Bologna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 41% | Bologna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.29 xG and Bologna 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 0.815 / defence 0.768 | Bologna attack 0.973 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.103. Lazio's defence rating of 0.768 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Lazio games / 62 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 46% | Draw 32% | Bologna 22%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Bologna 4.55. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lazio 30% | Bologna 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 46% | Draw 32% | Bologna 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Lazio 1.29 / Bologna 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 0.815 / def 0.768 | Bologna attack 0.973 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Lazio (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Bologna xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Bologna kick off?
Lazio vs Bologna kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Bologna?
Lazio 1 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Lazio vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Bologna part of?
Lazio vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 46% chance of winning, Bologna a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lazio and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Bologna?
Record (5 meetings): Lazio 2W | Draws 1 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Lazio and Bologna in?
Lazio (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Bologna (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lazio's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Lazio's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
46%
2.19
32%
3.12
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.11
0.82
Bologna xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
6%
16.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lazio and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Lazio and 0.82 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Lazio have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 33W 12D 16L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna's form line: 25W 21D 15L from 61 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lazio on 1.82 PPG, Bologna on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lazio have posted 1.90 PPG from 29 outings (16W 7D 6L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 8W 10D 11L from 29 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bologna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lazio are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.43 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Bologna in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 33W 12D 16L in their last 61 games (1.82 PPG), while Bologna have gone 25W 21D 15L in their last 61 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Bologna away?
Lazio's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.90 PPG; Bologna away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Lazio or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Bologna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lazio and Bologna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Bologna won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lazio's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lazio
2
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Lazio have won 4, Bologna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Bologna 0-2 Lazio.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 38%, Bologna 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Lazio) and 66% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Lazio's games and 72% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lazio vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Lazio's recent games and 66% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lazio and Bologna tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Bologna in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat Lazio 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Lazio 1-2 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.29 xG and Bologna 0.82 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bologna outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 0.81 / defence 0.77 against Bologna attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 46% | Draw 32% | Bologna 22%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Bologna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 41%, Bologna 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.82 PPG, Bologna 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Lazio (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.