Sassuolo 1-1 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 35%, yet in-form Torino provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sassuolo vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 24 as Sassuolo welcome Torino to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Sassuolo have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's home record at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Torino — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Torino are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sassuolo, 2 for Torino and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Torino winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Sassuolo in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Torino in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 58% versus Torino 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 58% | Torino 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.07 xG and Torino 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.928 / defence 1.165 | Torino attack 0.784 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.113. Data: 60 Sassuolo games / 60 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 35% | Draw 33% | Torino 32%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Torino 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sassuolo at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Torino (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 60% | Torino 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 35% | Draw 33% | Torino 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Sassuolo 1.07 / Torino 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.928 / def 1.165 | Torino attack 0.784 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Torino xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Torino kick off?
Sassuolo vs Torino kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Torino?
Sassuolo 1 - 1 Torino.
Where is Sassuolo vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Torino part of?
Sassuolo vs Torino is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 35% chance of winning, Torino a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sassuolo and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Torino?
Record (5 meetings): Sassuolo 1W | Draws 2 | Torino 2W.
What form are Sassuolo and Torino in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Torino (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sassuolo's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
35%
2.88
33%
3.01
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.08
1.02
Torino xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
11%
9.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.02 for Torino, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sassuolo's recent record stands at 17W 13D 30L from 60 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino, meanwhile, have gone 22W 19D 19L across 60 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sassuolo on 1.07 PPG, Torino on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sassuolo have managed 11W 6D 12L from 29 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Torino's away record stands at 11W 7D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sassuolo are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.03 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Torino in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Torino in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 17W 13D 30L in their last 60 games (1.07 PPG), while Torino have gone 22W 19D 19L in their last 60 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Torino away?
Torino's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.34 PPG; Torino away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Torino in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Torino have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Sassuolo's record when hosting Torino specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sassuolo
3
Draws
4
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Torino?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 1, Torino have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Torino 2-1 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 59%, Torino 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sassuolo) and 38% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Torino in 34%; Torino in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 45% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Sassuolo's recent games and 38% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Torino tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Torino in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo and Torino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo and Torino finished level at 1-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.07 xG and Torino 1.02 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.93 / defence 1.17 against Torino attack 0.78 / defence 0.81, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 35% | Draw 33% | Torino 32%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 58%, Torino 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Torino's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.07 PPG, Torino 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.