Monza 0-0 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Monza face Hellas Verona.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hellas Verona travel to U-Power Stadium to take on Monza in Serie A (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Monza stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Monza's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Hellas Verona — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Hellas Verona have posted 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Monza at 1.10 PPG versus Hellas Verona's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Monza, 0 for Hellas Verona and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Monza 3–1 Hellas Verona — a Monza win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Monza in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 46% versus Hellas Verona 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 41% | Hellas Verona 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.25 xG and Hellas Verona 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.832 / defence 1.040 | Hellas Verona attack 0.878 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.114. Data: built from Monza's last 61 games and Hellas Verona's last 61.
Result probabilities: Monza 40% | Draw 32% | Hellas Verona 28%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.51 | Draw 3.15 | Hellas Verona 3.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monza at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Monza's last 10 home games and Hellas Verona's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Monza 50% (last 10 home games) | Hellas Verona 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, matchday 24 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 40% | Draw 32% | Hellas Verona 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Monza 1.25 / Hellas Verona 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.832 / def 1.040 | Hellas Verona attack 0.878 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Monza (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Hellas Verona xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Monza vs Hellas Verona FAQs
What time does Monza vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Monza vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 11 February 2024 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Hellas Verona?
Monza 0 - 0 Hellas Verona.
Where is Monza vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Hellas Verona part of?
Monza vs Hellas Verona is a Serie A fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 40% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Monza and Hellas Verona will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Monza vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Monza's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Monza's last 61 games and Hellas Verona's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
40%
2.51
32%
3.15
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Monza xG
Total xG
2.27
1.02
Hellas Verona xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
8%
12.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Monza vs Hellas Verona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Monza and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Monza and 1.02 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Monza have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 21W 18D 22L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Hellas Verona's form line: 12W 16D 33L from 61 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Monza are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Monza have posted 1.40 PPG from their last 30 home games (11W 9D 10L).
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 3W 7D 20L from their last 30 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Monza are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.87 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
Monza (Home) vs Hellas Verona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Monza
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Monza vs Hellas Verona Form FAQs
What form are Monza and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 21W 18D 22L in their last 61 games (1.33 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 12W 16D 33L in their last 61 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Hellas Verona away?
Monza's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.40 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Oct 2024, when Monza won Hellas Verona 0-3 Monza.
Monza's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Monza
2
Draws
1
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Monza vs Hellas Verona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Hellas Verona?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Monza have won 3, Hellas Verona have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Hellas Verona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Monza 0-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Hellas Verona?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 50%, Hellas Verona 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Monza) and 40% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hellas Verona in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Monza vs Hellas Verona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Monza and Hellas Verona matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Monza's recent matches and 50% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Monza and Hellas Verona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Monza's recent games and 40% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Hellas Verona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Monza's recent matches and 63% of Hellas Verona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Monza's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Monza and Hellas Verona drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.25 xG and Hellas Verona 1.02 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Monza fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Hellas Verona landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.83 / defence 1.04 against Hellas Verona attack 0.88 / defence 1.04, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 40% | Draw 32% | Hellas Verona 28%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 41%, Hellas Verona 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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