Wuhan Three Towns 2-2 Shenyang Urban – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 63% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wuhan Three Towns face Shenyang Urban.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns welcome Shenyang Urban to Wuhan Sports Centre in Super League (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 16 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Wuhan Three Towns at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Wuhan Three Towns are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.89 xG and Shenyang Urban 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.867 / defence 1.104 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.561 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.245. Shenyang Urban's defence rating of 1.283 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wuhan Three Towns's projected output up. Shenyang Urban's attack rating of 0.561 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Data: built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 41 games and Shenyang Urban's last 11.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 63% | Draw 22% | Shenyang Urban 14%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 1.58 | Draw 4.45 | Shenyang Urban 7.07. The model has a clear lean to Wuhan Three Towns (63%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban | Competition: Super League, matchday 12 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 63% | Draw 22% | Shenyang Urban 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.89 / Shenyang Urban 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.867 / def 1.104 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.561 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.699 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Shenyang Urban xG
46%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban FAQs
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban?
Wuhan Three Towns 2 - 2 Shenyang Urban.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban is a Super League fixture (matchday 12) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 63% chance of winning, Shenyang Urban a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Shenyang Urban will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Shenyang Urban's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, Shenyang Urban's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 41 games and Shenyang Urban's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
63%
1.58
22%
4.45
14%
7.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.66
0.77
Shenyang Urban xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
7.07
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
15%
6.62
Win to Nil
29%
3.41
2%
46.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 10.2 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Shenyang Urban expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 0.77 for Shenyang Urban, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Pre-Season
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Wuhan Three Towns (Home) vs Shenyang Urban (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Three Towns
Pre-Season
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2026. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wuhan Three Towns
2
Draws
0
Shenyang Urban
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenyang Urban H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Shenyang Urban?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have won 0, Shenyang Urban have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Shenyang Urban last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Shenyang Urban 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Shenyang Urban away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Wuhan Three Towns and Shenyang Urban share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns and Shenyang Urban finished level at 2-2 at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.89 xG and Shenyang Urban 0.77 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Shenyang Urban outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Shenyang Urban attack 0.56 / defence 1.28, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 63% | Draw 22% | Shenyang Urban 14%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.