Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Qingdao Youth Island and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 09:30 UTC.
Current Form
Qingdao Youth Island's overall Super League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Qingdao Youth Island's home record at Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Qingdao Youth Island. A 0.90 PPG lead over Wuhan Three Towns (1.30 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Qingdao Youth Island lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Qingdao Youth Island half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Wuhan Three Towns half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Youth Island 60% versus Wuhan Three Towns 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 57% | Wuhan Three Towns 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.68 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.703 / defence 0.833 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.947 / defence 1.406. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.193. Qingdao Youth Island's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 1.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wuhan Three Towns bring a strong defensive rating of 1.406 — this is suppressing Qingdao Youth Island's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Qingdao Youth Island games / 40 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 55% | Draw 24% | Wuhan Three Towns 21%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Wuhan Three Towns 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Qingdao Youth Island (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Youth Island at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Qingdao Youth Island 50% | Wuhan Three Towns 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 55% | Draw 24% | Wuhan Three Towns 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.68 / Wuhan Three Towns 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.703 / def 0.833 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.947 / def 1.406 | league avg home 1.699 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Wuhan Three Towns xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 09:30 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Qingdao Youth Island 1 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 55% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (4 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 2W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Three Towns 1W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Qingdao Youth Island's attack rating (0.70) and Wuhan Three Towns's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (0.95x) against Qingdao Youth Island's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.09
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.62
0.94
Wuhan Three Towns xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
4%
25.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 0.94 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Qingdao Youth Island come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 18D 24L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Wuhan Three Towns sit at 0.93 PPG from 60 outings (14W 14D 32L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Qingdao Youth Island against 0.93 for Wuhan Three Towns. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Qingdao Youth Island's home form reads 9W 12D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Wuhan Three Towns have taken 0.83 points per game from 30 outings (6W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Youth Island come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.08 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 18W 18D 24L in their last 60 games (1.20 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 14W 14D 32L in their last 60 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Qingdao Youth Island's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 1.30 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Qingdao Youth Island
3
Draws
1
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 2, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 2-2 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Wuhan Three Towns?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Youth Island 60%, Wuhan Three Towns 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Qingdao Youth Island) and 53% (Wuhan Three Towns).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play Wuhan Three Towns?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Qingdao Youth Island's games and 60% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent games and 53% of Wuhan Three Towns's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Youth Island and Wuhan Three Towns share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island and Wuhan Three Towns finished level at 1-1 at Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.68 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 0.94 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.70 / defence 0.83 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.95 / defence 1.41, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 55% | Draw 24% | Wuhan Three Towns 21%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 57%, Wuhan Three Towns 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Youth Island 1.20 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.