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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 55%, yet in-form Qingdao Youth Island provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium plays host to Dalian Zhixing versus Qingdao Youth Island in Super League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

Dalian Zhixing (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Dalian Zhixing's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Qingdao Youth Island's overall Super League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

On a straight form reading, Qingdao Youth Island are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Dalian Zhixing, 2 for Qingdao Youth Island and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Qingdao Youth Island winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Statistical Overview

Dalian Zhixing's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 9W 9D 12L from 30 matches. Their scoring output is 1.0 per match with 1.5 conceded on average. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (7 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 30 games (3%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.

Trading & In-Play

Dalian Zhixing — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Qingdao Youth Island — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 40% versus Qingdao Youth Island 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 33% | Qingdao Youth Island 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.63 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.961 / defence 0.853 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.820 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.214. Data: 41 Dalian Zhixing games / 41 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 55% | Draw 26% | Qingdao Youth Island 19%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Qingdao Youth Island 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Zhixing (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Dalian Zhixing as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Qingdao Youth Island (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Zhixing 10% | Qingdao Youth Island 50% BTTS from recent games.

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