Dalian Zhixing 2-3 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 55%, yet in-form Qingdao Youth Island provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium plays host to Dalian Zhixing versus Qingdao Youth Island in Super League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Dalian Zhixing (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Dalian Zhixing's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Youth Island's overall Super League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Qingdao Youth Island are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Dalian Zhixing, 2 for Qingdao Youth Island and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Qingdao Youth Island winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dalian Zhixing — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Qingdao Youth Island — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 40% versus Qingdao Youth Island 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 33% | Qingdao Youth Island 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.63 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.961 / defence 0.853 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.820 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.214. Data: 41 Dalian Zhixing games / 41 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 55% | Draw 26% | Qingdao Youth Island 19%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Qingdao Youth Island 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Zhixing (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Zhixing as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Qingdao Youth Island (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Zhixing 10% | Qingdao Youth Island 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 55% | Draw 26% | Qingdao Youth Island 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.63 / Qingdao Youth Island 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.961 / def 0.853 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.820 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Qingdao Youth Island xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 15 May 2026 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Dalian Zhixing 2 - 3 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 55% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (2 meetings): Dalian Zhixing 0W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Youth Island 2W.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dalian Zhixing's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Youth Island's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Qingdao Youth Island's attack (0.82x) against Dalian Zhixing's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.89
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
2.48
0.85
Qingdao Youth Island xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
4%
26.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.6 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 0.85 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Dalian Zhixing have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 9W 9D 12L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Qingdao Youth Island's form line: 10W 10D 10L from 30 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Dalian Zhixing against 1.33 for Qingdao Youth Island. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dalian Zhixing have posted 1.73 PPG from 15 outings (8W 2D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Dalian Zhixing are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 4W 5D 6L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Zhixing come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dalian Zhixing are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.30 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Current Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Dalian Zhixing have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 10W 10D 10L in their last 30 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Zhixing at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Dalian Zhixing's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Zhixing at home: 1.73 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Qingdao Youth Island go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Zhixing have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Dalian Zhixing
0
Draws
3
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 3 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 0, Qingdao Youth Island have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Dalian Zhixing 2-3 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Youth Island?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Zhixing 20%, Qingdao Youth Island 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Dalian Zhixing) and 53% (Qingdao Youth Island).
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Dalian Zhixing have failed to score in 40% of games; Qingdao Youth Island in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Zhixing play Qingdao Youth Island?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Dalian Zhixing's recent matches and 60% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Dalian Zhixing's recent games and 53% of Qingdao Youth Island's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Dalian Zhixing have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Qingdao Youth Island defy the odds to beat Dalian Zhixing 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Dalian Zhixing 2-3 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.63 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.85 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.96 / defence 0.85 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.82 / defence 1.01, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 55% | Draw 26% | Qingdao Youth Island 19%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Qingdao Youth Island win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Zhixing 33%, Qingdao Youth Island 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Zhixing 1.20 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.