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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu meet at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Current Form

Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Henan Jianye's home record at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Sichuan Jiuniu away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Henan Jianye's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Henan Jianye 2W, Sichuan Jiuniu 1W, 3D.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2025, ended 4–1 with Henan Jianye winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Stats

Across 30 matches this season, Henan Jianye have gone 10W 7D 13L. Attacking returns: 1.7 goals per game; defensive: 1.6 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 2-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 30 games (23%). Penalties this season: 10 scored / 0 missed from 10 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.

Trading & In-Play

Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Sichuan Jiuniu — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 63% and Sichuan Jiuniu 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 55% | Sichuan Jiuniu 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.65 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.882 / defence 0.990 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.796 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.214. Data: 41 Henan Jianye games / 41 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 53% | Draw 26% | Sichuan Jiuniu 21%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Sichuan Jiuniu 4.76. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 70% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% BTTS from recent games.

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